COP29: The “battle” against climate change must be won before it is too late

The year 2024 has seen a catastrophic climate crisis.

In a year characterised by a range of extreme weather events, including prolonged droughts in the summer and persistent landslides and floods in the autumn, Italy witnessed a notable decline in political engagement. The situation in Spain, at a relatively short distance from Italy, is nothing short of tragic. It is a well-established scientific fact that the global climate is subject to a complex system of atmospheric and oceanic phenomena, as well as localised circumstances that exhibit a relatively predictable trend. The coincidence of the exponential growth in greenhouse gas emissions with the intensity of many extreme weather and climate events on the ground serves to confirm the now scientifically established relationship between the two, and simultaneously marks the advent of completely new and uncharted territory. In other words, the situation is becoming increasingly unmanageable. The high death toll, exceeding 220 in Valencia, is indeed alarming.

The financing of emission reduction plans and aid to poor countries is so problematic that it is probable that even at the forthcoming COP29 in Baku the issue will be deferred to the G7, which includes member countries engaged in endless wars and increased military expenditure.

But we are losing the battle against climate change, the most dangerous “war” that will continue indefinitely for generations if we don’t win it in time.

The Paris Agreement’s goal of keeping global temperatures well below 1.5-2°C is an unattainable mirage. In fact the world is on track for a 2.5-3°C temperature rise by the end of the century, the consequences of which will prove unsustainable for most of humanity.

There is also no consensus on how to carry out national emission inventories aimed at producing a global assessment and monitoring progress

nor has a global programme been put in place for the equitable sharing of commitments between rich and poor countries, between high and low emitters.

In the absence of clear and shared obligations, it is easier to conclude agreements with poor countries for large-scale methane extraction, rather than helping them make the transition to clean and renewable energies such as wind, solar, geothermal, wave, wood from sustainable forestry, etc.

The environmental damage caused by fossil fuels is so severe that in many regions of Italy and the world, insurance companies can no longer cover their losses. This shows that we have lost sight of shared prosperity economy and replaced it with repairing damaged economies. But this path is littered with misery and suffering that will not take us very far.

It is in everyone’s interest to take a constructive and responsible position and to return from Baku with concrete and tangible results. It is achievable and it is to be expected.

(*) Scientific Director of Grenaccord

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